Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 82308.929157 86894.126529 91478.999474 96404.288685 101542.250784 106740.700703 112394.600955
2025-05-04 75233.430192 82285.095168 89534.168622 97532.951135 106101.086238 114993.419884 124909.500110
2025-05-11 69489.419251 78175.412485 87302.409805 97586.834947 108831.544418 120731.287314 134254.720218
2025-05-18 65164.765121 75070.471696 85671.929298 97827.629826 111344.451858 125877.744740 142649.115474
2025-05-25 61521.227459 72373.156943 84176.177134 97916.688508 113420.515927 130319.398132 150077.432657
2025-06-01 59074.197398 70800.876424 83738.866555 99003.240105 116447.693238 135688.649039 158440.603809
2025-06-08 56110.399168 68448.696981 82246.791706 98731.762317 117797.244910 139059.281007 164465.184624
2025-06-15 54508.212039 67556.138087 82325.049524 100167.827858 121022.209774 144505.593669 172823.342059
2025-06-22 52697.607900 66312.392679 81901.886351 100936.997098 123407.945017 148943.674268 180001.416027
2025-06-29 50698.808512 64745.679962 81010.714963 101074.758651 124987.901704 152400.274282 186013.349485
2025-07-06 48826.576124 63245.691694 80121.602180 101143.241123 126426.209172 155648.599824 191757.365720
2025-07-13 48011.476006 62984.780968 80677.746576 102909.058633 129862.668621 161243.126970 200281.076760
2025-07-20 47063.573241 62540.842030 81006.951899 104413.034416 133020.483013 166568.909922 208585.193996
2025-07-27 45776.276871 61626.164869 80721.957492 105138.992538 135223.303689 170759.494474 215563.091595
2025-08-03 44190.331841 60276.256557 79847.259261 105092.334936 136447.757743 173752.404172 221097.550095
2025-08-10 42836.794155 59170.900098 79231.383126 105325.356187 137983.656591 177103.732604 227063.893833
2025-08-17 41496.428624 58034.048604 78532.443894 105414.965092 139311.252576 180183.217709 232696.878605
2025-08-24 40718.834319 57596.534401 78693.308494 106567.292840 141951.555183 184873.204612 240321.513313
2025-08-31 39341.482977 56326.924443 77749.667804 106278.889414 142754.247945 187278.888924 245128.447522
2025-09-07 38826.414382 56177.377507 78231.761306 107803.085374 145843.485424 192529.921464 253486.138836
2025-09-14 38037.357599 55633.718967 78178.803920 108619.373067 148023.435822 196649.406472 260453.941320
2025-09-21 37007.199565 54732.449452 77629.116235 108765.565907 149328.198937 199663.941296 266045.575281
2025-09-28 35994.993782 53824.541851 77042.577431 108838.239506 150519.432326 202526.222446 271449.556306